Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 202.394438 240.342034 285.524546 343.890255 418.172617 510.770094 6.368806e+02
2025-10-12 162.054821 209.415018 272.414299 364.566340 499.852621 697.887508 1.023338e+03
2025-10-19 137.504983 188.478166 261.857180 379.607260 572.919074 896.200594 1.524213e+03
2025-10-26 119.701989 171.609870 251.050375 388.346602 635.757231 1100.608789 2.156059e+03
2025-11-02 105.475525 156.719235 239.115760 390.564066 686.177328 1302.568492 2.925510e+03
2025-11-09 92.729044 141.708717 223.620402 381.905213 712.203860 1466.045104 3.739616e+03
2025-11-16 82.533808 129.185517 209.884382 372.815291 733.809996 1629.724223 4.715249e+03
2025-11-23 74.094220 118.388800 197.287298 362.859021 750.047521 1788.709683 5.860947e+03
2025-11-30 71.751349 117.840376 203.237522 392.198800 868.902415 2301.161805 9.168508e+03
2025-12-07 66.940124 112.151455 198.374305 396.844507 927.408928 2671.574214 1.260056e+04
2025-12-14 63.329845 108.219363 196.331323 407.437690 1006.750182 3176.900836 1.823478e+04
2025-12-21 58.989147 102.371406 189.479702 404.966824 1047.454781 3571.562627 2.452479e+04
2025-12-28 57.842318 102.791431 196.273005 439.462416 1224.148247 4759.008338 4.562247e+04
2026-01-04 56.140747 101.896074 200.103799 467.627350 1397.496638 6194.860510 8.680875e+04
2026-01-11 54.024352 99.875272 201.053673 488.247710 1557.041372 7842.149874 1.680529e+05
2026-01-18 51.572739 96.852632 199.181451 500.267454 1691.356698 9610.589701 3.282282e+05
2026-01-25 48.869333 92.988451 194.712568 503.321244 1790.841041 11362.019378 6.389007e+05
2026-02-01 45.685273 87.751605 186.152905 491.403627 1816.050508 12544.647485 1.102924e+06
2026-02-08 42.784000 82.886062 177.938752 478.917946 1834.010758 13755.584749 1.995797e+06
2026-02-15 40.106712 78.293222 169.877141 465.272340 1840.564055 14915.866987 3.760837e+06
2026-02-22 39.923829 79.387371 176.787872 505.573717 2171.390265 21634.304140 4.732355e+07
2026-03-01 38.367155 77.125235 174.424565 511.979655 2313.781504 26416.855988 1.004161e+09
2026-03-08 37.213610 75.712352 174.208170 526.611043 2523.977460 34018.804842 NaN